Analyzing the spread of Influenza H1N1 virus

(Busca la entrada en castellano inmediatamente debajo de esta traducción)



About the data provided by governments and WHO on the spread of the influenza H1N1 virus.(2009 H1N1 Influenza virus)

Reported cases approximately 2500 on May 8, 2009
Of the 2500 reported cases, the vast majority was infected in Mexico.

Of these, about 50% are foreigners who visited that country and subsequently returned to their countries of residence, and the other remaining 50% are about 1300 Mexicans.
This results in 50% of Mexicans and 50% of foreigners infected (except for a few exceptions) all of which in Mexican territory.

The analysis of these data leads to the following conclusion:

We are facing a "selective" virus which "choose" to infect one foreigner out of every two cases.

My question is: Has anybody questioned this statistical probability?and the answer is NO.

Neither the WHO, the government, or the media have questioned whether it is possible to end up with a proportion of 50% of infections among Mexicans and foreigners in an area populated mostly by Mexicans.

In my opinion it is reasonable to think that the figures of infected people and who show the symptoms upon returning to their countries, do correspond to those released by the government (I see no reason to think they would want to report more cases than those actually out there) so taking into consideration there is a margin for error in the figures provided, we could assume that the data is mostly related to mexicans.

But what if ... there were more mexicans with H1N1 then those actually reported, as it would be logical to assume (because it is logical to believe that the ratio between Mexicans and foreigners, in reality is actually higher) then why doesn't the mexican government report them? The answer could be, that they are most likely unaware of this discripancy. Possibly the answer lies within the fact, that the virus has a high rate of asymptomatic cases, which in turn, could be transmitting the virus to other people.

Everything indicates that we are facing the risk of people carrying the virus, that show no symptoms, but are passing it on to others. Does this mean that the measures taken by governments throughout Europe and the United States are not sufficient? Are they sure the measures adopted by them are protecting us from the spread of this virus? Are they really doing enough to protect the healthy population? Are you sure that only people with visible symptoms are the only ones able to spread the virus?

Given the possible existence of asymptomatic cases the only measures that could slow or stop the spread of the virus are hygienic recommendations and actions already taken in many countries, these being: no kissing, no touching of urban furniture, using facial masks in public areas with a high population density, regular washing of hands, clothes, touching as little cash money as possible, observing the usual risk groups of the common flu like immuno depressed, etc.. But such measures, in many countries, particularly those in the European Union, have not been recommended, on the contrary, such measures are believed to create a psychosis among the population and there would be creating unnecessary alarmism.

Why haven't any governments, the media, scientists, and the WHO analysed why there is a proportion of 50% of Mexicans and 50% of foreigners? Why hasn't anybody analysed the possible existence of asymptomatic cases, passing the virus on to others, when we face the risk of having 30% of the world population infected? (data provided by experts from WHO)

Is it quite simply not POLITICALLY CORRECT to analyse these statistics and the data at hand, considering the option that asymptomatic cases do exist and therefore hygienic measures need to be recommended rather sooner than later?

Well, obviously what is POLITICALLY CORRECT, appears to recommend the use of masks on subways etc. as ridiculous and psychotic.

If we consider the mortality rate in only one country, this being Mexico, to get an idea of how well this virus performs, we discover that this figure lies around about 10% (1300 infected, about 100 deaths)

Why aren't governments taking effective action when there is no longer a possible solution for "first cases" of people affected by this rapidly spreading virus?

Why did the Chinese government take such drastic hygienic measures from the very beginning, whereas the United States and European governments have still not done so? Could it be the Chinese are quite simply ignorant, and are frightened by the most ridiculous things or anything at all?

(Please apologize for any possible mistakes in English. This text has been translated into English by Spanish speakers with the idea to help facilitate and propagate it's content. Please feel free to suggest corrections.)

Please reflect your opinion about this entry. Do you feel protected by the decisions taken by your politicians of your country? If you'd like to suggest a new topic, please add it to your comment. Thanks!